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February-2013
By John Jullens, Bill Peng, Bill Russo, and Huchu Xu  
 
As the Danish physicist Niels Bohr famously pointed out, it is exceedingly difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. For the Chinese automotive industry, this has never been more true than today, with next year’s expert forecasts ranging from a respectable 6% growth rate to as high as 15% - an astonishing 150% spread. This unusually high level of uncertainty reflects the fact that the industry has arrived at a crucial inflection point in its lifecycle. 
 

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